11 May
2007

Okay, I suppose it time I had my say on the Deputy Leadership contest and, in keeping with other bloggers, make it known where I stand on the candidates.

I should say, right from the off, that my general take on the position has been all along that a new Deputy should attend cabinet but need not, necessarily, become Deputy Prime Minister, a role that I see as an unnecessary appendage with no real constitutional status, so what I’ve been look for most has been a sense that a candidate has a clear view on what the role should be, from a party standpoint, and how they’ll go about undertaking that role.

That alone ruled out both Alan Johnson and Hilary Benn, both of whom has said little more than that they’ll do whatever job Gordon asks them to do. Sorry guys, I did want a bit more than that, and in case, Benn in particular should conserve his time and energies for the senior cabinet position I hope he’ll be getting. He’s done a good job at International Development and looks a potential Foreign Secretary, the one cabinet role that definitely could not be combined with the Deputy Leadership of the Party.

Peter Hain? No, sorry, just not for me - one of those visceral things, I’m afraid. Can’t really explain it, it just feels wrong.

Harriet Harman? I do like Harriet, but the ‘I’m the women’s candidate’ shtick was a complete non-starter and, well, horribly outdated. I’d have actually taken here more seriously as a contender without it, because just as an individual she has some merits.

Hazel Blears? What do you think?

A position paper full of the same old managerialist bullshit I’ve been raging at for the last couple of years and a list of supporters - John Reid, John Hutton, Ruth Kelly, Joan Ryan, Andy Burnham - that reads more like an announcement that she’s contracted Death Watch Beetle and Dutch Elm Disease.

And that means… yes, this ascerbic and occasionally potty-mouthed blogger is declaring for Jon Cruddas, who’s been consistently impressive throughout and has a clear sense of the job he wants to do as Deputy Leader. I’ll no doubt have more to say on Jon as the campaign develops - and out of deference to B4L, play fair and don’t recommend this post because I’m backing Jon, I doubt I have that much sway amongst other bloggers so don’t make more of deal out this than it is.

On to other matters, and far be it from me to offer suggestions for the next Labour cabinet but I do have a few thoughts.

Benn at the Foriegn Office would do me nicely.

Jack Straw is rumoured to fancy a crack at the Treasury, and why not - he has had a run at both the other great offices, Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary - but for me I’d prefer to see him make a return to the Home Office, where we need a safe and considerably more diplomatic hand at the tiller than we’ve had for quite a long time. It’s long past time we had someone in there who, when Paul Dacre says jump, responds with ‘go jump yourself’.

Treasury? After 10 years there, Gordon knows better than anyone what the job needs, so I’m happy to take his judgment on it. Let’s face it, it hardly as if the Tories have much of challenger in Osborne anyway.

Johnson’s doing okay at education - I was a bit miffed with the climb down on Catholic schools but he’s been pretty steady in the role and deserves more time to carry it forward.

Health is major priority - we need someone in there who can talk and listen to doctors and nurses not lecture them in the fine arts of managerialist bullshit, and we need a coherent narrative for where we’re going with the NHS. Harriet Harman might be a good choice here as she’d bring a somewhat more human touch to the role, but with some serious backup for sorting out the structural problems… Liam Byrne springs to mind as he’s frighteningly intelligent and seems adept at cutting to the root of problems pretty quickly, and he’s one of the few ministers who understand IT well enough to pull some of the recent technology cock-ups out of the mire.

The new Justice ministry needs to come over to the Commons for the sake of accountability and Mike O’Brien’s been solid in the role of Solicitor General, so could step up.

As for the Attorney General, we need to do something radical in the face of the extent to which Goldsmith has been compromised over the advice on Iraq.

One approach could be to split the Attorney General’s role in two and hive off his prosecutorial responsibilities to an independent barrister under the aegis of the Supreme Court, leaving the AG roles as the government’s legal advisor intact.

The other would be to appoint someone noted for their independence of mind and attitude. Baroness Helena Kennedy is one possibility, the other would be - and this is radical - Michael Mansfield QC, although whether we could afford his services is another matter.

You might guess from this that other than the NHS, my main personal priority is to get out approach right on justice and civil liberties - we’ve moved too far to the right here, so far that the Tories can talk tough and still appear less authoritarian than we are. That has to change.

That’s as much as I want to say for now - more thinking aloud than anything else - except for one thing.

Renewal.

Is anyone sure exactly what it means?

For a long time it looked like all it was was a coded reference to Gordon’s eventual ascension to the leadership.

More recently its become tied in with the parlous state of our membership and local structures.

What it means to me - and what I want to see it come to mean for the Labour movement - is the rediscovery and reinvention of the intellectual foundations of the Party and the Labour Movement.

Nye Bevan once observed:

The Tories, every election, must have a bogeyman. If you haven’t got a programme, a bogeyman will do.

We’ve spent too much time on bogeymen in recent years and need to get back to having a programme, one with real intellectual foundations.

As a party and a movement we have a broad canon of radical though to draw upon, which we need to revisit, reassess and perhaps reinvent for the 21st century. Our starting point must be to exclude nothing. And yes, that does mean Marx as well…

Old style state socialism may be rather a busted flush, but much of Marx’s economic work holds valid, especially his work on the structural instabilities of capitalism which even right-wing economist accept, much as they disagree with his prescribed solutions - one might say that he was a far better diagnostician than a doctor.

Orwell argued on many occasions - never more so than in ‘The Lion and the Unicorn’ - for the necessity of developing an ‘English Socialism’ - or rather a British Socialism as it would be these days, something that would be distinct from the state socialism of the Soviet Union. His vision of what that might look like was sketchy and, from today’s perspective looks very dated indeed, but the basic idea - that by drawing on the many different strands of radical thought, we may be able to define a form of socialist philosophy tailored to the unique characteristics of Britain and the British people, is one I think remains valid today.

What shape this might take and how it might look is not something on which I have clear thoughts at the moment, just the general thought that somewhere in there will turn up Marx’s analysis of capitalism’s weaknesses, a fair chunk of Mill, Isaiah Berlins’ thoughts on the nature of liberty - that’s a must - and a whole raft of other things beside.

The older I get the more I learn one thing for certain - no single philosopher or political theorist has all the answers but in many they are ideas and partial solutions to problems that, if approached with an open mind and a willingness to think creatively, may provide ideas for the way forward.

That’s what I’m looking for from this idea of renewal - a real sense that what it means is an desire for and effort to rebuild the intellectual and philosophical foundations of the Labour movement.

What politics has lost over the last 30-40 years, and which accounts for some of the current problems we face due to disengagement from the political process - is the sense that it provides people with something to believe in - a narrative understanding of society and the world around them.

It’s that we need to rediscover. A sense of purpose.

5 Comments »

While writing the rest of this post, ongoing inquiries led me to the actual web development company behind the Brown Campaign website - Isotoma, which is based in York, and to this blog entry…

New customer site goes live

We’ve been beavering away pretty hard for the last few weeks on a new site which went live today. Gordon Brown’s campaign web site. One of the most topical sites we’ve ever launched (and linked to from BBC News, too, which always makes for interesting server administration panics). Given the inherently short time scales the team here have really pulled out all the stops to get it live, and even if we say so ourselves we think it’s all looking rather nice…

As this URL shows, the site is also hosted by Isotoma on their own servers.

http://firth.fe.isotoma.com/

With that, I’ll let most of the rest of the story ride….

UPDATE - The site does, of course, indicate on its front page that its hosted by Isotoma, which makes what follows all the more amusing for it having been staring both Dizzy and Staines in the face all day.

….

Time to revisit a post from last month which picked up on Iain Dale’s coverage of Dizzy’s investigations into the existence and likely whereabouts of Gordon Brown’s leadership campaign website.

Time for a quick synopsis of past events…

1. The Times ran a distinctly sub-standard article which alluded to the Brown campaign attempting to conceal campaign donations from the Electoral Commission, all of which was in keeping with the rather obvious and continuing Tory strategy of trying to mire Brown in allegations of low-level sleaze.

2. Dizzy did a little digging and turned up a number of suspicious looking domains in the form ‘gordonbrown4leader.[TLD]’ registered by an employee of Silverfish, a media communications company that has previously carried out media work for the Labour Party.

3. Dizzy then wrote up a somewhat ambiguous piece about his findings that, perhaps unintentionally, conflated his discoveries with the Times story, which he used as a starting point for his piece.

4. Iain Dale then jumped on Dizzy’s bandwagon and added a bit of spin of his own to the story to push it even further down the line that had appeared in the Times.

I then pitched in on the premise that the evidence, as presented, looked rather too thin to justify even Dizzy’s at times heavily qualified contentions, let alone Dale’s additional spin or the content of the Times article.

As should be obvious, with the launch of the Brown campaign comes the Brown campaign website, which means we’re now in a position to judge fully who got what right (and wrong).

So, first off, a minor mea culpa on my part - I did state in my original piece that:

Dizzy’s got it completely wrong having made the classic blogger’s error of interpreting the ‘evidence’ to fit a pre-conceived conclusion rather than deriving conclusions from the evidence.

And I now seems that I need to revise my original estimate somewhat.

What Dizzy got right was that Silverfish have registered domains that are no being used by the Brown campaign - although what he hit on in terms of the domains he uncovered at the time appears to have been no more than ‘possibles’ that have now been rejected or protective registrations. The ‘gordonbrown4leader…’ domains continue, at this point, to be parked up at Discount Domains.

What is in use - and was also registered by Silverfish at the same time - was gordonbrown.org and gordonbrownforbritain.com (plus .co.uk, .org and .org.uk), which are the domains in use.

As for everything else… that’s all still complete guesswork and conjecture.

Whatever else Silverfish are, they’re not a web design company and nothing on their new site - and I particularly like the game of ‘guess how to scroll the page’ - suggests that they have anyone on staff with the kind of in-house expertise to deliver the all singing and dancing new media web 2.0 love-in that Dizzy was expecting. Oh, and they have made just as poor a job of protecting the domains they are using as those that Dizzy found as well.

So, with hindsight, Dizzy’s exclusive looks little better today than it did at the time, inasmuch as the only solid thing he’s proved is that a company bought a couple of hundred quid’s worth of domains last October.

Interesting, but small potatoes and still no where close to supporting the sleaze line that Dale and The Times were trying to run with.

As for the rest - the web 2.0 love-in and the ‘backend in development since October/December’ well…

I supposed you can call the site ‘web 2.0′ in the sense that it has RSS feeds and a video on it…

… it’s a Wordpress blog (version 2.13) and the video is hosted on YouTube, in an account created on May 8th, with the footage in the video having been shot in Sheffield on May 1st. The Moblog/Photo Gallery uses a bog-standard Wordpress plug-in and a Flickr account, and the ‘Follow’ option takes you to an embedded Google Map (another standard plug-in), which provides the site with a very neat way of spiking Paul Staines’s ‘Where Gordon’ shtick…

Staines is already whinging about the ‘unoriginality’ of the Google Map in a post that claims, in addition that ‘Gordon’s People’ denied and lied about the site and Dizzy seems to think that the appearance of Brown’s campaign site at a domain bought by Silverfish vindicates his original article in full. He’s also still twittering on about ICANNs policy on domain speculation despite knowing full well that the policy is entirely meaningless and unenforceable - or does Dizzy think that GoDaddy’s Domain Name Auction Site vets every single seller for complience with ICANN policy before letting them put a domain up for sale.

What was said by Mark Lucas from Silverfish on April 12th - the day after Dizzy’s first article - was…

“There is a mini-industry around buying domain names. We look into the future and work out what is likely to be useful. We were not commissioned by anyone, but we’d be happy to sell it on to Gordon Brown.

“We do a lot of stuff for the Labour Party, but haven’t been asked to do anything for Mr Brown’s campaign. We have been filming for Labour in the local elections, including Cabinet ministers for films, web clips and archives.”

In light of the fresh information to hand, I am have to revise my estimate of the story - Dizzy was not ‘completely wrong’ - only 99% or so has turned out to be bollocks.

In short, Dizzy’s still proved nothing of substance - and even if it is true that Silverfish were given a nod from Damien McBride to register a few domains, as Staines contends well so fucking what - its hardly a smoking gun in fact it doesn’t even amount to nicking paperclips, which is about the level of Staines most recent revelations.About the most interesting thing here, all told, is that Staines has been up to his usual trick of making stealth edits - his post of yesterday originally cited the url of Brown’s campaign website as www.gordonbrown.org and not www.gordonbrownforbritain.com, only for Dizzy to drop him in it this time by acknowledging this at 10am today, which neatly puts a timeline on the alteration made by Staines.

dizzy115.jpg

What makes this even more stupid is that the gordonbrown.org domain actually does now redirect to the campaign website.

You following this?

Staines has accused the Brown campaign of lying about its relationship with Silverfish having dishonestly made an alteration to a post published yesterday to make it appear that he knew the correct domain name of the Brown campaign website a full day before he actually got that information. Any one with a shred of honesty would simply have noted that the domain identified yesterday, the .org, now pointed to the actual domain of the website, but not Staines because that wouldn’t fit in with his carefully cultivated image of being ahead of the game.

And now, as you’ll have seen from the exclusive at the top of the post, Silverfish do not own the Brown campaign website nor do they appear to have had any substantive part in its development, but for possibly the first campaign video.Will Staines now post a correction? Or will he try another stealth edit to cover his mistake?

UPDATE

Even more bizarrely, Staines, post this morning actually credits Dizzy for making the spot on the real URL, which makes it even more odd that he’d then go back and alter a day old post without noting the change…

One starts to wonder quite what time Staines started on his usual Friday lunch today?

UPDATE - STAINES BUSTED AGAIN…

Staines has been stealth editing again…

bustedagain.jpg

“The shiny all new GordonBrown.org…”?

That wasn’t there earlier - and conveniently enough the date stamp on the RSS Feed shows the time that this post was lasted edited - 16:33 on Friday 11th May.

T0 make matters even more interesting, Staines has now added a footnote to his story…

*There are a few others [domains] as well. Silverfish bought some of them off lucky owners for substantial sums.

Funny he should mention that because the previous owner of www.gordonbrown.org turns out to have one David Taylor, who was found last year to have registered a spate of ‘Johnson4Leader’ domains (and, ironically, was also busted by Dizzy) - the domain appears to have housed the hastily pulled ‘Gordon is a moron’ blog.

And as Tim Ireland relates here (scroll down to point 11) Taylor has also been identified by Paul Staines as one of his past (and maybe present, who knows) sources as this e-mail exchange demonstrates…

—- Original Message —–

From: “Guy Fawkes”

To: “Tim Ireland” tim@bloggerheads.com

Sent: Monday, September 11, 2006 4:31 PM

Subject: Re: boom

>

> Have you done fourth term net?
>
> Are you going to point the finger at Benji Wegg Prosser No. 10’s
> Director of Strategic Communications?
>
> Not vis-a-vis Taylor - he is McM’s gofer. - and paid to dig dirt on
> LibDems. But McM is plausibly deniable by BWP.
>
> BWP is very keen on the Online War. He is frustrated with what he
> sees as right-wing ascendancy online.
>
> Check the Google cache for the hastily pulled Gordon is a Moron blog.
>
> On 9/11/06, Tim Ireland wrote:
>> Of course, you’ll have to report this when it goes mainstream
>>
>> —– Original Message —–
>> From: “Guy Fawkes”
>> To: “Tim Ireland”
>> Sent: Monday, September 11, 2006 5:14 PM
>> Subject: Re: boom
>>
>>
>> > All yours, am laughing.
>> >
>> > As I said before, he is a source. That buys him some protection.
>> > Doesn’t mean I don’t wish you well…. ;)
>> >
>> > On 9/11/06, Tim Ireland wrote:
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> http://www.bloggerheads.com/archives/2006/09/david_taylor_rumbled.asp

The ‘others’ that Staines refers to here may well just be an ‘other’ as Taylor was only ever positively ID’d for having the one Brown-related domain name, unless Tim or anyone else knows otherwise.

4 Comments »

Another day. Another hack. Another thinly veiled allusion to the internet as the root of all evil…

Obama’s white noise - Gary Younge

The internet seems a fulcrum for hatred of black people: not just for what they say, but for the fact that they have a voice at all.

As a skinny kid with a funny name who grew up with white parents and grandparents in Hawaii and for a while in Indonesia, Barack Obama is no stranger to racial insults.

Huh? Look I don’t doubt that the young Obama did catch his fair share of unseemly racial epithets during his formative years but I should also make the observation that much of the population of Hawaii are ethnic Polynesians and, of course, the majority population of Indonesia are anything but white, so the references to both locations strike one as being a touch incongruous. Now if you’d have said that he’d grown up in Texas and Alabama, then I think everyone would be pretty much on the same page as you right from the off, but otherwise you could have simple made the point that he’s taken crap as a child of mixed parentage and omitted the other extraneous information.

So Rush Limbaugh’s description of him as a “Halfrican American” along with the repeated playing of a racially insulting song deriding Obama as a “magic negro” will come as no great surprise. Limbaugh prides himself on being a shock jock but in truth his bigotry is not that shocking.

Of course, on this you’re entirely correct if a little verbose. It’s well known that Limbaugh is a complete cunt, it’s like saying that the sky is blue and the sun is hot.

Nor is the fact that CBS had to disable people from commenting on Obama stories on its website because of the sheer volume and intensity of racist comments.

Trolls are a fact of life on the internet, which is why we have moderation tools.

So, to recap, thus far we’ve discovered that:

Barack Obama is black (of mixed parentage to be exact, but, for the purposes of this article this is an incidental detail).

Barack Obama has, in the past, been insulted because to his ethnicity.

Rush Limbaugh is a cunt, and

There are trolls on the internet.

Not really a stream of stunning revelations, is it?

These things are depressing. They also stand in stark contrast to the ridiculous claim that being black will go in his favour when the polls open. And while they are not inevitable, they are expected. Every time I write on this site I expect it. And I am rarely disappointed.

Which polls are you referring to?

Sorry but the FT article you link to is subscription only, so you need to be a little more explicit in your comments and may be include a relevant quotation from the article to illustrate your point - that’s your lesson in blogging for this morning and I’ll not charge you for it.

If the FT is referring to the Presidential contest, should Obama pick up the Democratic nomination then yes, you may well have a point… kind of.

There is a segment of the US electorate who are, indeed, racist and would never, ever, contemplate voting for Barack Obama. But one also has to be a touch careful not to fall into the trap of allowing correlation to imply causality here. This segment of the electorate would not contemplate voting for Hillary Clinton either…

or John Edwards…

… or any other candidate put forward by the Democratic Party, because they are committed Republicans. And, as such, their racism is to a considerable extent incidental to their political beliefs in determining their voting intentions.

On the other hand, if what we’re talking about here are those states with laws that disenfranchise ex-felons to varying degrees, then you may well be on to something.

Current estimates suggest that around 5.3 million American have currently, and in some states permanently, lost the right to vote due to having a felony conviction.

This includes those currently in prison, naturally enough, but in two states all ex-felons are permanently disenfranchised even after completing their sentence in full, nine more disenfranchise certain categories of offenders and/or permit the restoration of voting rights by application but only after a set waiting period (typically from 2-5 years after release), and the process they have to go through to regain the vote is notoriously slow and bureaucratic to the point that relatively few ex-offenders are able to take advantage of them. To add to that, 35 States disenfranchise felons during the period of their release on parole and 30 of these also disenfranchise those who are ‘lucky’ and are sentenced only to probation as a result of committing minor felony offences.

Felony disenfranchisement disproportionately affects poor communities and, within that, black communities. The current estimate is that 1.4 million black men (13% of the adult population) are either temporarily or permanently disenfranchised. These are, as is well known, a substantial portion of the Democratic Party’s core vote - poorer communities, that is, not just ex-felons, such that these laws do have a disproportionate effect on the party’s electoral prospects.

However, if one is talking of the Democratic Primaries that will select their chosen contender for the Presidency, then the ‘Black vote’ is a significant factor in the equation as a black man, Obama does start out with something of an edge over his rivals. It’s not certain, by any means, that he will successfully capture the black vote but, by comparison to his rivals, that vote could reasonably be argued to be his to lose rather than theirs’ to gain.

There is, it seems, a critical mass of white people out there who does not simply loathe what a black person might say, but who hates the idea that they have a voice at all.

The problem is not confined solely to race. And as ever it is the work of a tiny minority. But a very vocal and belligerent one.

So there is a critical mass and tiny minority at the same time? Do make your mind up will you.

And somehow their numbers are amplified on the internet, where people hide behind anonymity in a medium for the time being dominated by white men.

Somehow?

There’s no somehow about it. Some of this comes down to mere sockpuppetry, but much of it stems simply from the fact that the internet is a global medium that makes things like the aforementioned CBS articles widely accessible to a mass audience, allowing a small number of otherwise widely spread arseholes to easily gather in a single location and run their mouths of to their hearts’ content.

The result is a curious and irritating form of white noise - a ribald gabfest in which either black people in general or a specific black person in particular become the target for considerable animus.

A “curious and irritating form of white noise” - oh very droll. Irrelevant but droll?

Despite stellar individual contributions the standard of these conversations only occasionally rises above those you might overhear in a pub. The difference is you chose who you talk to in a pub.

And you choose who you read on the internet, and CBS and other site owners also get to choose how can and can’t use their websites as a platform for their opinions, so your point is?

As seems to a common theme amongst the commentariat of late, the medium is being blamed for the message.

It is function of life that in every community there is small proportion of people who are complete twats, and it, therefore, follows logically that the bigger the community you’re dealing with the more twats you have to contend with, in terms of raw numbers, even if the decent person to twat ratio stays the same.

The internet is not a ‘fulcrum for hatred of black people’ just a means by which this particular foul-minded minority can collect together in certain locations and publicly vent their collective spleens. There is no more or less racism in the world since the development of the internet, its simply that the internet makes it that bit more visible.

The pub table analogy is a fatuous one, in this case. The fact that a journalist sitting in his office cannot see the racist pub bore in residence holding forth does not mean that the pub bore does not exist. He might as well try and suggest that trees fall silently in the forest when there’s no one around to hear them.

Obama has done well to simply parry these comments and get on with his campaign. But he can only do this for so long.

Why parry them? Why not simply treat them with the contempt they deserve and ignore them?

For these remarks do not come in isolation. Some push the boat out and make threats, creating a sense of siege that has a real effect.

Now that is a different matter, but then threats may come in many different ways.

One cannot ignore threats of violence but the very nature of the Internet, that it makes possible an immediacy of response not found easily in other mediums, does suggest that the vast majority of ‘threats’ uttered on-line will amount to nothing more than bullshit.

The internet is, for some, a ‘fire-and-forget’ medium that allows them to run off at the mouth without first engaging the brain and shoot off a comment or remark with considering precisely what they are saying or the impression their remarks might create. In that, threats issued on-line, while they can never be entirely discounted, are considerably more likely to amount to nothing when compared to, say, an anonymous letter, which necessitates that the author goes about the making of their threat with a measure of deliberate intent - although the precise intent may still be highly variable as most such threats turn out to be hoaxes designed to provoke a reaction rather than clear indications that the author intends violence - Assassins rarely, if ever, advertise their intentions before the fact precisely because the heighten security that would engender would make their ‘task’ considerably more difficult to pull-off.

It was Alma Powell who convinced her husband Colin not to run for president back in the 1990s, for fear of assassination. Now comes news that Obama has secret service protection. I wonder why that would be?

Possibly because he’s received a few threats from right-wing racist nutjobs which the security services have, as yet, been able to trace to source and assess for any real prospect of danger.

Or, equally possibly, because US security services have obtained intelligence from sources that are entirely unconnected with any of the on-line chatter, which suggests that there may be a real threat.

Who can say for sure?

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Never having been one for eulogies and valedictory speeches, I struggled today to come up with a suitable way of marking Blair’s announcement of the date of his impending departure… should I be serious or satirical, that’s the question.

Well, after much deliberation I decided ‘fuck it, let’s have a bit of fun’ so, without further ado The Ministry of Truth is pleased to announce its first official Ministerial ‘Dead Pool’, the game where you win by picking losers.

THE OFFICIAL MINISTRY OF TRUTH MINISTERIAL DEAD POOL

RULES/HOW TO ENTER

The rules of the game are simple.

Below you’ll find a list of current Government Ministers and their Shadow counterparts - there is the odd anomaly in there due to bits of doubling up, Peter Hain, for example, has two portfolios (Northern Ireland and Wales) and two official shadows, and I’ve included Oliver Letwin, who has no direct counterpart in the Labour ranks. I’ve also stuck to senior posts for both brevity and to avoid getting a string of posts asking who the fuck most the juniors are.

All you have to do is select the FIVE serving Labour Ministers and FIVE shadow ministers from the Tory ranks who you think are most likely to be demoted or leave their respective front benches in the Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet reshuffles that will follow the election of the new Labour Party leader (and Prime Minister), and rank them from 1 to 5 in order of which you think is most likely to go.

Blair, Prescott and Reid have already announced their intended departures so they don’t count, which is why they’re shown in Italics and although I have included Gordon Brown and David Cameron in the lists, well you’d have to be an idiot to choose either of them - they’re included simply to help with your deliberations.

So, for example, if you think that Tessa Jowell is the most likely to find herself spending more time with her mortgage papers come the reshuffle, followed by Charlie Falconer, Ruth Kelly, Stephen Timms and Geoff Hoon, then in the comments you’ll provide the following list…

Labour

1. Tessa Jowell

2. Lord Falconer

3. Ruth Kelly…

4. Stephen Timms

5. Geoff Hoon.

And the same kind of thing for the Tories as well - and remember you are trying to pick the most likely losers here.

SCORING

Scoring is pretty straightforward.

For each of your party lists, you get five points if your first choice is demoted, four for your second choice and so on down to one point for your fifth choice. Where a minister doubles up and covers two portfolios they are considered to have been demoted only if they lose BOTH jobs.

You can also score bonus points depending on how they’re demoted.

You get one bonus point for:

A demotion from one of the three Great Offices of State (Chancellor, Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary) or from the new Justice Ministry to a ministerial position inside the Cabinet,

A demotion from any other position to a junior position outside the Cabinet, or

If your choice is shunted over to the House of Lords, other than to the positions of Leader of the Lords or Lords Chief Whip.

You get two bonus points for:

A demotion from one of the three Great Offices of State (Chancellor, Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary) or from the new Justice Ministry to a ministerial position outside the Cabinet, or

A demotion from any other position to the backbenches.

And you get three bonus points for a demotion from one of the three Great Offices of State (Chancellor, Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary) or from the new Justice Ministry to the backbenches or for any choice who announces that they will return to the backbenches before the completion of the Labour leadership election on 27th June.

There are also two special bonuses on offer - five points if any of you choices announces their intention to leave parliament at the next general election within forty-eight hours of the reshuffle and ten bonus points should any choice resign their Party Whip or Cross the Floor to another party in the same period.

For the purposes of this game, and to keep the maths simple, the positions of Leader of the House of Commons and House of Lords, Party Chairman and Letwin’s position as Chairman of the Tories Research/Policy department are considered to be on the same level as a standard senior ministerial position (e.g. trade, defence, etc.) but below the three Great Offices of State and Justice Ministry.

ANNOUNCEMENT OF RESULTS

Full results will be announced after BOTH parties have completed their reshuffles, although an interim leaderboard will be published after Labour’s reshuffle, which I would expect to come first.

Oh and Unity’s decision is final, of course…

PRIZES

Nah… this is just a bit of fun for bloggers…

THE LISTS

Remember that Blair, Prescott and Reid are ineligible and you’d have to be an idiot to choose Cameron or Brown, but otherwise you should make you selections from this list.

Portfolio

Minister

Shadow

Prime Minister

Tony Blair

David Cameron

Deputy Prime Minister

John Prescott

-

Chancellor of the Exchequer

Gordon Brown

George Osborne

Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs

Margaret Beckett

William Hague

Secretary of State for the Home Office

John Reid

David Davis

Lord Chancellor andSecretary of State for Justice

Lord Falconer of Thoroton

Oliver Heald

Leader of the House of Commons

Jack Straw

Theresa May

Leader of the House of Lords

Baroness Amos

Lord Strathclyde

Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government

Ruth Kelly

Caroline Spelman

Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport

Tessa Jowell

Hugo Swire

Secretary of State for Defence

Des Browne

Liam Fox

Secretary of State for Education and Skills

Alan Johnson

David Willetts

Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

David Miliband

Peter Ainsworth

Secretary of State for Health

Patricia Hewitt

Andrew Lansley

Secretary of State for International Development

Hilary Benn

Andrew Mitchell

Secretary of State for Northern Ireland and Secretary of State for Wales

Peter Hain

David Lidington

Cheryl Gillan

Secretary of State for Trade and Industry

Alistair Darling

Alan Duncan

Secretary of State for Transport andSecretary of State for Scotland

Douglas Alexander

Chris Grayling

David Mundell

Secretary of State for Work and Pensions

John Hutton

Phillip Hammond

Minister for the Cabinet Office

Hilary Armstrong

Oliver Letwin

Minister without Portfolio andParty Chair

Hazel Blears

Francis Maude

Chief Secretary to the Treasury

Stephen Timms

Theresa Villiers

Chief Whip

Jacqui Smith

Patrick McLouglin

Minister of State for Europe
(Foreign Office)

Geoff Hoon

Graham Brady

Minister of State for Trade

Ian McCartney

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Attorney General

Lord Goldsmith

Dominic Grieve

Solicitor General

Mike O’Brien

Jonathan Djanogly

Lords Chief Whip

Lord Grocott

Lord Cope of Berkeley

*Note - The Tories have no official Shadow Deputy Leader (effectively Hague fills this role) and their Solicitor General, Jonathan Djanogly doubles as Ministry of State for Trade and Industry and shadows Ian McCartney.

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