Okay, for those following the contest the current official state of play is:
Leader
Brown - 307 nominations
McDonnell - 29 nominations
However the latest reports put McDonnell 15 short of making the ballot paper with only 15 PLP members yet to declare - and one of those is thought to have declared for Brown since the last official update.
All of which means that Brown will become Labour leader (in waiting) at the close of nominations.
Deputy Leadership.
Johnson, Blears, Harman and Hain had made the ballot paper last night, and have now been joined, as expected, by Cruddas.
Benn is still currently shown as 3 short of the required 45 with 35 still to declare - one would think that 3 from 35 or so is not the biggest of asks, so it does appear as if a six-way contest may be on.
What’s most interesting is how the various contenders appear to be shaping up in terms of the kinds of constituencies they’ve been courting or drawing their support from.
Johnson has gone for the union vote, although its thought that he may face stiff competition from Cruddas when to comes to attracting support from Unite (Amicus/TGWU).
Harman has most openly courted the ‘women’s vote’ and drawn support from a number of prominent younger Brownites - quite to what extent this is a reflection of support for a gender-balanced ticket as opposed to a more cynical appreciation of Harman’s values as a non-threatening ‘placemat’ for ambition members of the next generation is unclear as yet.
If Hain has a constituency, then it seems to be Wales, thus far.
Cruddas has a solid raft of bloggers and has gone all out for the activists’ vote.
Blears has hoovered up the Blairites, and…
Benn… there’s a couple of decent polls that seem to show some strong grassroots support but little sense as yet that he has an obvious constituency amongst Labour Members.
Despite some tipping Blears as the dark horse of the race, it may well be that such predictions are premature as Benn’s lack of an obvious constituency could work in his favour under the AV voting system if supporters in the other camps see him as the safe second choice behind their favoured candidate.
Benn sneaking up on the rail to pip the field by a nose? Maybe…
I’m still backing Cruddas mind you, but my instincts are that it would be unwise to write off Benn just yet.
Brow has 308, McDonnell has conceded on his blog.
I think that whistling noise is the sound of the PLP, losing us the next election.
May 16th, 2007 at 8:32 pmI think Blears or Harman (depends on performance) are the favourites for the second preference vote. after watching the brief heckle on newsnight I’ve looked at some blogs and there are already signs that Benn is not popular among the sisters ( only six nominated him ?).
Blears looked much better than I expected, she talked slower and showed a steeliness . the clip showed her basically doing what johnson does and emphasising her backstory.
I’ve never got the appeal of him really, like Harman I think its largely on paper and based on what people want them to be rmuch more than what they are.
May 16th, 2007 at 10:48 pmSorry, its Benn ive never got the appeal of.
May 16th, 2007 at 10:51 pmI caught that Newsnight feature: I found it ironic that Benn was accused of patronising women, when Harman’s entire strategy rests on an similar set of patronising assumptions. Hain didn’t seem to get much of look in. Cruddas is clearly being positioned by the media as the ‘Who? Who cares?’ also-ran. I was amused by Blears’ ‘I’m authentically working class, me!’ routine (all that was missing was a clip of her chilhood appearance in A Taste of Honey and a track from the Smiths). She’ll end up scrapping with Johnson over that position. But the scariest part was the straw poll where Blears came first. Do I laugh because Harman’s USP is working for the other female candidate (oh, the irony), or cry because the audience liked an on-message android?
PS: Now that it’s a case of ‘Gordon Crowned’, it looks like Labour have decided on their leader in a manner reminiscent of the Tories of old. (In fact it’s worse, because the MPs haven’t taken a secret ballot.)
May 17th, 2007 at 8:24 amRisky times for Cruddas, the ‘lack of experience’ line Crick used will be picked up and used against him, and his success with the union’s is being used to suggest that they strongarmed MP’s into nominating him.
How Mcdonnel’s support reacts will be curious - on the one hand they could be furious that Cruddas didnt help them enough to the golden 45 and on the other if they go full tilt into backing him this could push him further left than he wants to be.
Mcdonnel’s failure does damage Cruddas in a subtle way though - it makes the DL contest much more a proxy debate on Leader and makes it more about who is to be Deputy PM , Cruddas of course is arguing against that.
All of the above is a good test though, he can make it work for him.
I’d suggest he makes more effort to connect emotionally as otherwise he may appear too dry and arcane.
May 17th, 2007 at 9:06 amNo Mcd means more Labour Members want someone to compliment Brown IN THE MEDIA if Cruddas cant find a way to tap into that then he will be pushed out of the running.
Cruddas is certainly the darling of the bloggers and this is no bad thing. But I think this may be turning into a marker for him for better times ahead. He is the coming man- but not this time.
Far better if Gordon were to do what Callaghan failed to do in creating [and making Jon] a Minister for Industrial and Employment Relations, in or with access to the Cabinet. Jon has thoughtful ideas on trade union freedoms that need turning into reality; and there is a whole constituency there amongst the small businesses that remain non-unionised and which treat their employees like what we can best call merde.
May 17th, 2007 at 3:44 pmMcdonnel’s failure does damage Cruddas in a subtle way though - it makes the DL contest much more a proxy debate on Leader and makes it more about who is to be Deputy PM , Cruddas of course is arguing against that.
It also damages him to the extent that potential Cruddas voters appear to be already quitting the party in disgust at the PLP. Including at least one I know who fully intended to vote for Brown.
May 17th, 2007 at 3:54 pm